So, the internet is going crazy over the happenings in Iran. It’s being called a revolution by everyone from right-wing Americans to leftist Egyptian activists. Personally, I am not convinced that there was rigging going on, and that’s not because I pretend to know or understand Iran’s electoral system or what happened, but for the simple reason that if fraud was committed it would’ve had to have been on a massive scale. And voter fraud on a massive scale would mean that there must be at least a bit of evidence, which if there is, it has yet to surface. I will write more about this later, but I think everyone outside Iran needs to chill out and get straight on the facts before accusing one side or another of foul play. Say what you will about Iranian “democracy,” Ahmedinijad could very well have been the legitimate winner in these elections, meaning the majority of Iranians voters chose him. What’s happening now involves a lot of angry youth who are protesting in Tehran and I’ve heard in a few other places around the country. Before the world jumps behind their “revolution,” let’s get some facts straight. Here are a couple links attempting to do that (and just to make clear, I know the people working on the first site, and they are by no means Ahmedinijad supporters, the bottom blog is also run by someone who admits he does not like him)
LATEST: Full election results, by numbers
‘These account for a total of 16,565,964 votes. Of these, 9,194,832 belonged to Ahmadinejad (55.5%) and 6,734,204 to Mousavi (40.1%). The national total was 39,371,214, of which Ahmadinejad got 62.5% and Mousavi 33.9%.
‘This leads to the obvious point everyone already predicted: Ahmadinejad did significantly better in small towns and villages, and Mousavi did significantly worse. But Ahmadinejad didn’t do bad in the big cities either (more than 55%). There are some cities, as you’ll see below, where Mousavi was a lot closer to Ahmadinejad, or even beat him (as in the most glaring case, Tehran, and especially northern Tehran).
Statistical Report Purporting to Show Rigged Iranian Election Is Flawed
Like most Americans, there are few things I would like to see more than Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran’s hateful President, to be voted out of office. Elections in thuggish, authoritarian states like Iran need be treated with the utmost skepticism and scrutiny. I can’t say I have any real degree of confidence in the official results, which showed Ahmadinejad winning with some 62 percent of the vote.
There is a statistical analysis making the rounds, however, which purports to show overwhelmingly persuasive evidence that the Iranian election was rigged. I do not find this evidence compelling.
Iran’s election results were reported by its Interior Ministry in six waves. The first wave covered about one-third of the total vote; there were then two relatively large waves that reported about 20 percent of the vote each, and then three smaller waves that reported the remainder of the vote. What other observers have found is that, over the course of the six waves, there is an extremely strong, linear relationship between the number of votes reported for Ahmadinejad and the number reported for his principal opponent, Mir Hussein Moussavi (who had declared victory before any results were officially announced):
Visit both these sites for detailed numbers and charts.